Most marketers have started to incorporate some kind of Facebook strategy into their marketing plan. Makes sense with Facebook’s immense reach of more than half a billion users. Covering the basics to reach people, just like a search campaign. An ad network buy. Given Facebook’s ubiquity and their strong persuasion of being a permanent player in the evolving digital landscape, this makes a lot of sense.

While I strongly encourage the majority of brands to have a Facebook presence, I don’t recommend investing in any platform for the long-term. The history of the Internet is littered with sites that promised to rule the digital world, just to disappear or die a slow death: Geocities (#1 site in 1997), Excite, Altavista, AOL, Yahoo, MySpace. Remember when AOL owned email?

My crystal ball is pretty cloudy today and I’m not a big believer in the “XY is dead” or “AB will die” game. But I’m pretty sure that in five years Facebook won’t be as important to users as it is right now. New sites might be more interesting to people. User behavior might change. The way we access the Web might change. (Actually, all of this will happen.)

Most sites are like new cars: It’s so exciting to drive them first, explore all the features and get comfortable with the newness. After a while, there’s always a point where the new car becomes the old car. Littered with stuff. Never really 100% clean anymore. Dings. Daily annoyances. And you start looking for the new-new thing. It happened to all web properties. When will it happen to Facebook?